Analyst Forecasts Strong Nintendo Switch 2 Sales in 2025

Summary

• An analyst predicts that the Switch 2 will sell 4.3 million units in the US in 2025, assuming it launches within the first half of the year.
• The analyst believes the Switch 2 will be strong, but the PS5 may lead in US console sales.
• High anticipation surrounds the Switch 2, but its success could hinge on launch timing, hardware quality, and the competitiveness of its game lineup.

Gaming analyst Mat Piscatella forecasts that the Nintendo Switch 2 will sell approximately 4.3 million units in the US in 2025. This prediction is based on the assumption that the console launches in the first half of the year. For context, the original Nintendo Switch sold 4.8 million units by the end of 2017, exceeding Nintendo's expectations at the time. To meet the high demand, Nintendo had to airlift Switch units. Fans are hopeful that Nintendo has better anticipated demand and planned accordingly for the Switch 2.

Anticipation for Nintendo's next console is palpable, with the Switch 2 frequently trending on social media due to eager fans awaiting its announcement. However, this buzz may not directly translate into sales. Several factors will influence the Switch 2's performance in 2025, including the timing of its launch and the quality and appeal of its game lineup.

Circana's video game analyst, Mat Piscatella, expects the Nintendo Switch 2 to launch by April 2025, just before summer. This timing could boost sales during Japan's Golden Week holiday and other seasonal festivities worldwide.

Analyst Predicts 4.3M Switch 2 Sales in 2025

Seeing as how an announcement appears to be coming soon (but who knows) - I have Nintendo's next hardware device selling 4.3 million units in the US in 2025 (assuming 1H launch), accounting for approximately 1/3rd of all video game console hardware units sold in the year (excluding PC Portables).— Mat Piscatella (@matpiscatella.bsky.social) 2025-01-08T16:09:43.754Z

Piscatella elaborates that in the US, the Switch 2 could account for one-third of all video game hardware unit sales, excluding portable PC devices like the Steam Deck or ROG Ally. He anticipates initial supply constraints due to high demand but is unsure about Nintendo's manufacturing resources. It's possible that Nintendo has stockpiled resources to avoid a shortage similar to the launch of the original Switch and the PS5.

While Piscatella believes the Switch 2 will perform well, he predicts that the PlayStation 5 will top US console sales. The excitement for the Switch 2 could drive sales, but the PS5's lineup, including highly anticipated titles like Grand Theft Auto 6 expected in 2025, might overshadow it. If the Switch 2's hardware and launch lineup are impressive, it could still lead the market.

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