Analysts on Nintendo Switch 2 Pre-order Chaos: 'Unhinged Times' Due to Tariffs

It's been a whirlwind of a week for U.S. gamers, marked by a rollercoaster of emotions. The excitement kicked off with the full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2, showcasing its impressive features and game lineup. However, the joy quickly turned to dismay when the $450 price tag and $80 for Mario Kart Tour were announced. The rollercoaster took another sharp turn this morning when Nintendo decided to delay pre-orders for the system. This decision comes as the company assesses the impact of the Trump Administration's sudden and sweeping tariffs on global trade.

We've previously discussed the reasons behind the high cost of the Nintendo Switch 2 and the potential effects of these new tariffs on the gaming industry as a whole. However, the burning question on everyone's mind right now is: what will Nintendo do next? Will the Nintendo Switch 2 become even more expensive when pre-orders finally open?

Typically, when faced with questions about the future of video games, I consult a panel of expert industry analysts. While they can't predict the future with certainty, they usually provide a well-informed consensus based on evidence and data. I've already done this twice this week. However, this time, every analyst I spoke to was stumped. They offered guesses about whether Nintendo would raise prices, but each response was heavily caveated with an emphasis on the current chaos. This unprecedented situation has left everyone guessing about what Nintendo, the Trump administration, or anyone else might do in the coming days, weeks, or months.

With that in mind, here's what the analysts I spoke to had to say:

Sky-High Switch

The analysts were divided on whether Nintendo would raise prices. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, initially thought it was too late for Nintendo to increase prices after the announcement. However, the delay in pre-orders has changed his perspective. He believes Nintendo may have no choice but to raise prices for the system, games, and accessories. "It is very difficult to predict, but Nintendo will likely take a few days to run simulations and then announce hikes, not only for the system itself but also games and accessories," he said. "I hope I am wrong, but if sustained, these sky-high tariffs leave them no choice. Would you be surprised now to see Switch 2 hit US$500 for the base model? I wouldn't."

Dr. Toto also questioned Nintendo's timing, wondering why they didn't wait for the U.S. to resolve the tariff issues before setting the price. "Why on earth did Nintendo not wait for the US to fix their tariffs first and then decide on pricing during a Direct a few days later? This made no sense."

Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, echoed the sentiment that the situation is unprecedented and unpredictable. He believes that game prices, including those from Nintendo, are likely to increase, though the extent and specifics are uncertain. "Based on the conversations I'm having, the breadth and depth of the tariffs surprised everyone, not just consumers," he said.

Piscatella noted that Nintendo likely had some assumptions about the tariffs when setting the initial price, but the actual tariffs were much higher than anticipated. "Every reasonable and responsible business that relies on international supply chains will be reevaluating its US consumer pricing at this point. They have to."

He also pointed out that some regions have historically faced higher game prices, and the U.S. might join them due to these tariffs. "The haphazard and chaotic nature of the tariffs and their announcement obviously has many scrambling to navigate the fallout."

Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, predicts that hardware prices will increase, though he believes software prices might not be as affected. "While physical versions might be subject to tariffs, the growing dominance and lower cost of digital distribution would likely limit any broader effect," he said.

Regarding hardware, Rosier suggests that companies like Nintendo are unlikely to absorb the additional costs. "If a 20% tariff—or any substantial increase—were to be introduced, it’s unlikely that companies like Nintendo would absorb the additional cost by cutting into their margins. In such cases, the burden could shift to consumers in the form of higher retail prices."

Holding the Line

On the other side of the debate, Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, acknowledges the possibility of a price increase but believes Nintendo will try hard to avoid it. "I believe the volatility from the Trump tariffs was already considered in the Switch 2's $449.99 pricing," he said. "Given the first Trump administration's impact, Nintendo, like other manufacturers, has since restructured its supply chain to mitigate such geopolitical risks. Historically, Nintendo has aimed for a launch price around the $400 mark, adjusted for inflation, suggesting that the current price already reflects an anticipation of potential economic challenges stemming from ongoing trade disputes."

Van Dreunen also highlighted the unpredictability of the tariff decisions, particularly with the recent situation in Vietnam. "Nevertheless, the unpredictable nature of these tariff decisions—exemplified by the recent situation in Vietnam—injects a significant amount of uncertainty into the market. This could compel Nintendo to find ways to absorb or offset additional costs, especially when initial product margins are typically narrower. While I expect Nintendo will strive to maintain the $449.99 price point, the external economic pressures may eventually force a reassessment if the trade landscape deteriorates further."

Piers Harding-Rolls, games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agrees that Nintendo faces a difficult decision. "The extent of the tariffs and its impact on Vietnamese exports are really bad news for Nintendo," he says. "The company is now in between a rock and a hard place, having already announced the launch price. I have already suggested that the pricing would stay as announced until 2026 at the earliest but then might be adjusted if the tariffs stay in place. This delay in pre-orders is to give the company more time and it will be hoping some sort of solution will be found over the next few weeks. This is a pretty fluid situation after all. Nintendo will not want to change the price having announced it, but I think everything is on the table now. If the pricing does change, it will impact the brand and the US consumer’s view of the product at launch. I don’t think that will put off loyal fans, but it might put off broader consumers who will take a wait-and-see approach. That’s particularly important during its first holiday season."

Living in Unhinged Times

Rhys Elliott, games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicts higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He also referenced his previous comments about Nintendo's strategy of offering cheaper digital editions of games in certain markets. "It seems the lower prices in other markets were to nudge Switch 2 buyers to digital, as I mentioned my comments to IGN about Mario Kart World’s pricing. Nintendo might have wanted to do something similar in the US, but the tariff situation is so chaotic that Nintendo was in 'wait and see' mode — and decided to hedge its bets to see if it needed to offset the tariffs."

Elliott painted a grim picture of the broader impact of the tariffs on the gaming industry, aligning with warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. He believes the tariffs will result in a "weaker, poorer nation," with consumers ultimately bearing the cost. "Some manufacturers – Nintendo included – have been shifting their manufacturing to non-tariff-impacted markets," Elliott says. "And even if companies can afford to switch up (no pun intended!) their supply chains, who knows which markets will get tariffs next – as recent news supports. Companies cannot just lift up their whole supply chain and move everything to the US. It’s just not logistically possible. Under current law (I can’t believe I have to qualify this, but here we are), Trump would not be in power anymore by the time such a move would be completed – for Nintendo and other manufacturers. We are living in … there’s no other word for it .. unhinged times driven by an unhinged man (and other forces)."

Elliott also criticized the tariffs for their negative impact on U.S. consumers during a cost-of-living crisis. "These extreme tariffs will also be bad for consumers in the US but are positive for the US administration’s populist façade. Policies that lead to higher prices for everyday people amid a cost-of-living crisis are deplorable. They're bad for gamers and the games business. I won’t comment on the real reason for the US tariffs, but ‘a much stronger, much richer nation’ is not it."

He concluded by emphasizing the economic harm caused by tariffs, citing the principle of comparative advantage in international trade theory. "What’s more, time and time again, data has shown that tariffs harm the economy. Comparative advantage is a core principle of international trade theory. Basically, consumption and economic well-being are stronger when countries focus on producing goods they can efficiently produce (at the lowest cost compared to other goods) –and trade for goods they are less efficient at producing. The trade war flies in the face of these core economic principles."

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