Nintendo Switch Sales Plummet Amid Rumors of Successor

Nintendo's hardware sales forecast has been revised downward again, with Switch console and game sales falling "below expectations." For the first nine months of the fiscal year, dedicated game console business revenue dropped 31.7% year-over-year to 895.5 billion yen (approximately $5.7 billion) due to decreased Switch and software sales. Mobile and IP-related income also declined by 33.9% year-over-year to 49.7 billion yen (approximately $320 million), largely attributed to a tough comparison with 2023's highly successful The Super Mario Bros. Movie. This resulted in a 27.3% year-over-year decrease in gross profit to 565.5 billion yen (approximately $3.6 billion).

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Nintendo has further lowered its financial forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2025, for the second consecutive time. The projected Switch hardware sales have been reduced by 1.5 million units to 11 million, and software sales by 10 million to 150 million. While sales declines are anticipated for the eight-year-old Switch, the drop is steeper than Nintendo initially projected. Nevertheless, the Switch has surpassed 150 million units sold, a remarkable achievement. While surpassing the PlayStation 2's 160 million sales may be unlikely, the Nintendo DS's 154 million sales record is within reach.

Nintendo characterized Switch and software sales in Q3 2024 (ending December 31, 2024) as "stable considering the platform's age." Overall Switch family sales were down 30.6% year-over-year at 9.54 million units, with software sales declining 24.4% year-over-year to 123.98 million units. However, Nintendo highlighted strong sales of new titles: The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom (3.91 million), Super Mario Party Jamboree (6.17 million), Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (5.38 million), and Nintendo Switch Sports (2.63 million) during the quarter. Mario & Luigi: Brothership reached 1.4 million sales.

Super Mario Party Jamboree stands out as a significant success, outpacing previous Mario Party titles on the Switch within its first 11 weeks of release (October 17, 2024).

Crucially, active Switch users remain high, with 129 million annual playing users in 2024. This indicates continued engagement despite the console's age. Nintendo noted that while Switch unit sales decreased year-on-year, sales in some holiday weeks exceeded those of the previous year.

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Given the financial report, investors anticipate the Switch 2's launch. Nintendo confirmed upcoming releases for the original Switch: Xenoblade Chronicles X: Definitive Edition (March 20), and Pokémon Legends: Z-A and Metroid Prime 4: Beyond (2025). The Switch 2, announced on January 16th for a 2025 release, will be further detailed in a dedicated Direct on April 2nd, alongside global hands-on events.