Switch 2 Predicted as the Best Selling Next-Gen Console Despite Not Even Being Out Yet

Gaming market analyst DFC Intelligence forecasts Nintendo's Switch 2 to dominate next-gen console sales, projecting 15-17 million units sold in its first year. This prediction makes the Switch 2 the "clear winner," even before its release. Let's delve into this exciting forecast.

80 Million Units by 2028: A Bold Prediction

DFC Intelligence's 2024 Video Game Market Report, released December 17th, positions Nintendo as the console market leader, with Microsoft and Sony facing an uphill battle. The Switch 2's anticipated 2025 launch, coupled with limited initial competition, is key to this prediction. The report projects sales of 15-17 million units in 2025, soaring to over 80 million by 2028. The high demand may even challenge Nintendo's production capabilities.

While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these remain largely conceptual. DFC Intelligence anticipates new consoles from these companies by 2028. However, the substantial time gap (unless a surprise 2026 release occurs) gives the Switch 2 a significant head start. The report suggests only one post-Switch 2 console will achieve similar success, potentially a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established fanbase and strong game franchises.

Nintendo's success isn't surprising, considering the Switch's lifetime US sales have surpassed those of the PlayStation 2, according to Circana (formerly NPD). Mat Piscatella, Circana's executive director and analyst, announced on BlueSky that the Switch, with 46.6 million lifetime US sales, is now the second best-selling console in US history, trailing only the Nintendo DS. This achievement is noteworthy, despite a reported 3% year-over-year sales decline.

A Resurgent Video Game Industry

DFC Intelligence paints a positive picture for the gaming industry's future. David Cole, founder and CEO, highlights the industry's 20x growth over three decades and predicts a return to healthy growth through the end of the decade after a two-year slump. 2025 is projected to be a particularly strong year, driven by new releases like the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI, reigniting consumer interest and spending.

The gaming audience is also expected to expand, exceeding 4 billion players by 2027. The rising popularity of portable gaming, esports, and gaming influencers further contributes to increased hardware sales across PCs and consoles.